1. Financial Liability Mechanics
Beginning January 1, 2026, EU importers must purchase and surrender CBAM certificates for embedded direct (and in some sectors indirect) emissions of imported goods.
The gross certificate liability is calculated as:
Statutory Calculation Formula
Gross Financial Liability (€) = Σ ≤ft( Export Volume_g × SEE_g × (1 - Free Allocation Factor_y) × EUA Price - Art. 9 Credits
2. Running Financial Scenario Simulations
Step 2.1: Open Financial Liability Simulator
Navigate to Executive FinanceCBAM Liability Simulator.
Select your simulation horizon (e.g. 2026 to 2034 EU Free Allocation Phase-Out).
Step 2.2: Adjust Financial Stress Variables
EUA Price Curve: Choose between Linear Growth (€85 → €130), High Volatility Spike (€160 peak), or Custom Price Inputs.
Projected Export Growth: Enter forecasted volume changes per product line (+5% YoY).
Decarbonization Capital Expenditure: Model planned energy efficiency investments (e.g. converting BF to DRI-EAF).
Step 2.3: Export Sensitivity & Board Briefing Deck
Review the generated financial exposure chart:
Annual Net Certificate Cash Outflow.
Cost per metric tonne of exported finished product.
Margin impact and origin tax deduction offsets (Article 9).
Click Export Financial Board Briefing (PDF).